Sunday, March 18, 2007

Africa @ night

Journeys | South Africa

In the Dark in the Park, With the Wild Things

Benedicte Kurzen for The New York Times

A springbok spotlighted at the Mountain Zebra National Park near Cradock in South Africa. Night rides in game preserves are increasingly popular.

Published: March 18, 2007

“GATES Close at Sunset”: those four forbidding words loomed over my visits to game parks in my South African childhood. My father's forehead would bead with sweat as we raced the fading light, ignoring everything, even that leopard up a tree bloodying an impala. To be locked in was to be abandoned to the creatured dark. But once back in camp, I'd feel the tugging, half-seductive terrors of the far side. I'd pace the fence, alive to the yelps, the hoots, the smothered coughs, wondering what night thrills I was being denied.

More and more South African game parks now recognize that night drives offer visitors an unbeatable frisson. After all, an after-dark shutdown makes as much sense as rolling up Manhattan's sidewalks at sunset: so many African animals come into their own when the heat subsides. Like hip urbanites, they surface from slumberous hideouts to drink, forage, frolic and stalk. Night promises a different cast and different ambience from the veld's diurnal panoramic stage.

Over the years, I've been on a half-dozen night drives, mostly at upmarket private game reserves that began the trend and where overnight accommodation (drives included) can run to the equivalent of $500 a person a night. But the vastly cheaper state-run parks like Kruger National Park, Mkuze Game Reserve and Itala Game Reserve now offer such opportunities as well. So while in the Eastern Cape last January, I determined to sample a couple of budget night drives for under $25.

Mountain Zebra National Park, one of South Africa's most ruggedly beautiful but least-visited preserves, offers night drives for 100 rand (about $13 at 7.6 rand to the dollar) a head. The park's mix of dry river valleys, high grassy plateaus and recessive mountain chains rising in the distance to 7,000 feet, summons New Mexico to mind — a New Mexico studded with black rhino, Cape buffalo and herds of foaling zebra.

Robert Rikhotso, a wiry young Tsonga, met us at his jeep at 6:30 p.m. sharp. We set off into the wispy sunset as the Cradock Mountains turned maroon. A troop of thuggish baboons escorted us from camp, loping beside the jeep as if trying to bully us into giving them a ride.

Crepuscular creatures began to stir with the dying of the light. A bat-eared fox, then a second and a third, emerged from abandoned aardvark burrows and, noses to the ground, skittered through the dusk. The fox's four spindly legs seemed scarcely strong enough to hold up its vast, ballooning ears. Robert's handheld light picked out scrub hares and springhares (bopping on hind legs like diminutive kangaroos), a corkscrew-horned kudu and a toothpick-horned steenbuck, all boasting Prince Charles ears, reminders that by night out there one lives or dies by listening.

Night drives force us to recalibrate our senses. We're reminded how much we lean on sight and how, by animal standards, we're aural amateurs. (And despite the “whiff of forest floor” patter that wine columnists exude, humans are even less competent at smell.) When Robert trained his spotlight on a massive kudu bull, the antelope's satellite ears tilted and twitched to sounds my smudgy hearing couldn't possibly discern.

The jeep negotiated a potholed dip; ahead of us a black rhino wallowed in ochre mud. The rhino rolled onto its feet and stared us down as a tiny terrier-sized rhino baby, rose from the mud. The adult swung its head toward us, perhaps weighing whether to charge, then herded the baby ahead of it as they soundlessly disappeared. Two male ostriches pirouetted by, ghost dancers flapping black and white beneath the tracery of moon.

Robert, sotto voce, proffered bits of animal lore. How the jackals (now yodeling in the background) roll ostrich eggs uphill with their noses and then release them to smash them against each other, as in a game of boules. He pointed out the mountain reedbuck's quirky rocking-horse gait; the black rhino's beaky upper lip (useful for snapping off twigs); and how mountain zebras can survive for a week without drinking and, in droughts, may dig holes 45 feet deep to get at water.

Night drives have their inevitable longeurs. But Robert, happily, didn't clutter the quiet with verbiage. High among the pleasures of these drives is the chance to take in the silence and the dark, both diminishing resources endangered by the sky glow and cacophonies that leak from human sprawl.

Robert would swivel his light across a buffalo herd, pick out their ginger-red eyes and make a few behavioral observations before switching off the engine and his light. We'd listen to the snuffling shapes as they strolled off; then listen again to the silence that swallowed them.

As we looped back toward camp, a tan-and-white creature I'd never seen before skittered across our path: a nocturnal special, the aardwolf (Afrikaans for earth wolf). This mild-mannered cousin of the hyena survives almost solely on termites. The aardwolf's agile, sticky tongue can lap up 200,000 termites on a good evening. I was thrilled to encounter this animal, one never seen by day; doubly thrilled when 10 huge ears on minute bodies popped up behind the termite mound. The mother let the baby aardwolves, smaller than housecats, indulge their curiosity before scooting them underground.

Later that week, I drove 180 miles south to the Addo Elephant National Park, a more popular park and arguably the finest place in Africa for viewing elephants. Night drives at Addo cost 180 rand a person. This time, the guide's vehicle and the group proved larger: 24 of us, mostly Germans and Swedes. But we were lucky with the night: a full moon and an open sky.

We saw plenty, large and small: everything from elephant herds to laughing hyenas, warthogs, yellow mongooses and nocturnal polecats (an African relative of the skunk). We learned some intriguing facts. When we chanced upon a dusty bull elephant feasting on succulent bush 20 yards away, our guide observed that elephants have to sleep on their feet in brief power naps. Given the bulk they must support, elephants don't dare to rest too long from eating. They also can't risk sleeping lying down: their seven-ton bodies could crush their lungs

We learned, too, that eland, a dewlapped, ox-sized antelope, communicate with each other by listening to the clicking of the cartilage in their knees. (Do aging athletes, I wondered, share this secret language?)

But the Addo night drive proved less satisfactory than the Cradock one: in the larger vehicle, we had both a driver and a guide, who nattered to each other whenever game was not in view. The effect was like driving through a spectacular wilderness with a yakking car radio. Soccer, girlfriends, salaries, family health ... the two men covered all the bases. Perhaps they assumed their conversation wouldn't be intrusive, or they were just too blasé, too bored, or had done this trip with too many foreigners before. Silence, like any delicate commodity, is easily mishandled.

The truck lights never went off, denying us the chance to sink into the animal darkness and the quiet. I found myself nostalgic for a night drive I'd taken at the nearby Gorah Elephant Camp, a lavish, high-end private game lodge on Addo's southern fringe. Our ranger had driven us out onto the plains, switched off his engine and his lamps, and let us soak up the silence beneath a gibbous moon. Given time like that, the rod cells in the retinas slowly take over and the eyes adjust to seeing in just three shades: black and white and gray. The veld began to assume a dreamy, retro, silent-movie feel as color and clamor drained away. Seven ghostly elephants floated into view, weightless behemoths drifting inches above the plains, trunks swaying. Behind them trailed a herd of moon shadows.

The day-night rhythms of the bushveld shift as radically as the rhythms of any great metropolis. What you encounter after dark is decided by so many variables: the mood of the animals, the season, the weather, the condition of the moon and blind luck. The night's only promise is the promise of uncertainty. But a skilled guide can do a lot to immerse us in the strangeness of true night, that edge of lunar unreality that skirts the animal dark. As the trip with Robert reassured me, cost need not be the decisive factor: on the right 100-rand drive you can experience not only exhilarating game sightings but full immersion in night's sensory intensities.

Let the gates swing open. Let the late show begin.



Check Out My Other Blogs (click on blog name to go there) = / 1.3rd Eye Blog / 2. Favorites Blog/ 3. Vita Excolatur (Living Well ...) Blog/ 4. Humor Me Blog/ 5. News and Current Events Blog/ 6. Consider This ... Blog/ 7. Consumer Warnings Blog/ 8. New Orleans Pentimento Blog/ 9. We Constant Gardeners Blog/ 10. Chaillot Family Blog/

Friday, March 16, 2007

California Hiking


Adventurer

A Chance to Hike California’s Hidden Buttes (Maybe)

Peter DaSilva for The New York Times

Tim Davis is a ranger at Sutter Buttes State Park, which remains closed to the public while California tries to work with ranchers on issues like access and development.

Published: March 16, 2007

TO motorists traveling on Interstate 5 through the Sacramento Valley of Northern California, the distant Sutter Buttes resemble mountains one might see in a Disney animated movie — a compact cluster of twisted peaks and rounded knobs that rise abruptly above the pancake-flat valley floor.

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California Travel Guide

Peter DaSilva for The New York Times

The area is distinguished by its many buttes, including Cat Rock.

Peter DaSilva for The New York Times

The cemetery at the Pugh Ranch, which is inside the state park.

Fewer travelers have seen the closer view from Yuba City on the eastern side of the valley. There, the Buttes rise just high enough behind the town to create a powerful background for a postcard. They’re so close, so low and so intriguing that they could be a Hollywood movie set — theatrical, cosmetic.

But while the Buttes may be familiar to many, entering them is forbidden to most. Few outsiders have been allowed to journey into the ancient volcanic outcropping or climb the towering columns of andasite and rhyolite lava that form the walls and peaks of what local boosters call the World’s Smallest Mountain Range.

The Buttes became private property even before California became a state. John Sutter (of Gold Rush fame) first claimed them in a Mexican land grant. Squatters later took Sutter to court, saying he did nothing to validate his claim. A judge gave them the land they wanted.

And public access has remained limited.

“The landowners themselves, back in the ’60s, locked it up,” said a third-generation rancher, Margit Sands, whose family grazes cattle on 1,000 acres. “Before that, people could go up, take a picnic, you know, Sunday picnic, and it was fine. Close the gates before and after you. But then they were abusing it. They’d leave gates open; they would trash things.”

An arson fire in the 1960s, Ms. Sands said, sealed the ranchers’ views and put an end to free visits by the public.

Now, the state is trying to do exactly what Ms. Sands and her fellow ranchers have long opposed: open at least a slice of this rarely seen land for public use.

The state first tried to buy land for a park here in the 1920s. But it wasn’t until 2003 that California found a willing seller and bought 1,785 acres for what it already calls Sutter Buttes State Park. The nearly $3 million purchase included the idyllic pioneer Pugh Ranch, which is scheduled to become Peace Valley, the park’s showplace.

On a mild winter day, Tim Davis, a park ranger, led me on a tour of Peace Valley.

Video

“It hasn’t been changed over the years, and this is a chance to come back to a spot in California that pretty much looks the same way it did since the mid-1800s,” Mr. Davis said as he led the way up to a knoll overlooking the valley. On top, a wrought-iron fence surrounds a tidy square cemetery. Headstones mark graves of Pugh family members. Behind the knoll, up and to the west, a steep mountain wall forms one end of Peace Valley. A single lumpy lava pinnacle called Cat Rock is in the foreground.

Below the knoll and to the east, new winter grass carpeted a contoured gentle valley no longer marred by the deep ruts of wagons and cattle on what was once a working ranch. Mr. Davis took care that our footsteps didn’t disturb the moist soil. Miles of old hand-built rock walls used as fences followed the contours of the hills and blended in almost as though they were part of the natural scene. Soon, the ranger said, the area would be covered with spring wildflowers.

Beneath the knoll, in a sloping meadow, a large flat rock suggested the area’s ancient history. The park rangers call it Counsel Rock, and Mr. Davis said it might have been used by the Maidu people, who lived outside the Buttes in the Sacramento Valley. Summers brought them into the Buttes to gather and grind acorns. The Maidu revered the mountains as a spiritual place.

According to Maidu belief, Mr. Davis said, “when it’s time to go into the afterlife, they came back to this area and then ascended.” Mr. Davis lifted his arms to the sky and looked up. “In other words, the portals to the afterlife would have been directly above the Sutter Buttes.”

Other flat rocks with bowl shaped holes probably used to grind acorns are nearby. The patterns and placement of the holes in rows suggest that Maidu women sat back to back to support themselves as they pounded and ground acorns.

Besides a rich cultural history, the Buttes also have a unique geological origin. But whether these curious crags really are the world’s smallest mountain range doesn’t seem as important to geologists as how they came to be in the first place.

“At this stage, at this point in time,” Mr. Davis said, “they believe this is the largest example of sedimentary material that’s been uplifted by volcanic activity.”

The old volcanic upheaval in the center of the valley is probably not related to the Sierra Nevadas to the east nor the coastal range that forms the west side of the valley. The Buttes just oozed up on the valley floor about 1.5 million years ago. Mr. Davis said that hot, pasty viscous lava pushed up slowly into a damp, malleable environment. “Instead of just having the material come through it, it lifted that sedimentary material, and bent it up, up, up, up, up,” he explained, showing with his hands how the block of land was lifted and tilted. “Eventually, they’ve determined 7,000 feet, or 7,000 vertical feet of material was uplifted up on end.”

The state hopes to acquire more land in the Buttes, but it is likely to take years of hearings and decisions to come up with a general plan for the park. “This is the public’s land,” Mr. Davis said. “They have a right to come in. But we are also mandated to protect this land. We want it to be developed in a way that it is not damaged.”

Neighboring ranchers are not reassured. Some make no secret of their anger over the state’s plans for a public park in the heart of the Sutter Buttes. There has been enough bad feeling to slow down plans for the state park, if not block them.

After California began efforts to create the park a few years back, rangers found that locks on gates used by the state had been filled with honey or glue. Feral pigs were killed and left where visitors would see them (there was one near a gate the day we toured). Signs bearing sarcastic, if not humorous, comments are posted along roads used by the state. One ranger laughingly calls the situation a mini-range war.

One rancher, who insisted on anonymity, said that some landowners were responsible for these activities.

The park land is surrounded by privately owned land. Now, as California prepares for hearings on the new park, some ranchers have decided to deny the state access.

“A few landowners think they can deny our access, but that is false,” said Mike Fehling, the state parks sector superintendent. “We have the right to use our easement.”

Still, Mr. Fehling said he was trying to work with the ranchers, offering help with roads, fences and gates.

But many ranchers seem unconvinced of the government’s good will. “The word eminent domain comes in,” Ms. Sands said skeptically. “That’s a big, black cloud, and so that’s one big concern.”

Another landowner, Marty Steidlmayer who said his 5,500 acres run “right through the middle of the volcano,” worries about trespassing and damage to his fences. He wants the state to limit visitors and allow them to enter only on guided hikes.

Mr. Fehling said the state was operating Sutter Buttes under interim operational guidelines that call for holding the status quo. Over the long term, he said, “we won’t plop down 200 campsites, which would adversely impact the spirit of place,” adding that Sutter Buttes could become a day-use-only park, closely monitored with guided hikes.

In fact, Ms. Sands and Mr. Steidlmayer already offer limited access to the Buttes with guided hikes on their lands and the lands of some of their neighbors, for a price.

Most hikes are available through the Middle Mountain Foundation (www.middlemountain.org), which plans to offer 45 hikes this year. The organization will also accept reservations for 45 specially arranged chartered group hikes. Each hike will take 10 to 20 people and cost about $32 a person. Charter hikes with box lunches run a few dollars more.

Mr. Steidlmayer leads hikes on his land for about $40 for each hiker and schedules them himself at (530) 682-7872. Though his few remaining outings this season are full, he will resume taking reservations in August for hikes that begin in November. As the ranchers battle the state over public access, it is only the ranchers who are allowing the public in to hike while the state park remains closed to the public. For now, the state limits its hikes to representatives of government agencies and the press.

MEANWHILE, tough times, divorces and squabbling heirs have put pressure on some families to subdivide ranch land. With a few well-located parcels bringing upward of $20,000 an acre, the temptation to sell is strong.

Along Pass Road, which cuts through the southern edge of the mountain cluster, long white fences mark property lines of newly constructed showcase houses that have begun to encroach on the Buttes.

That frustrates Ms. Sands and Mr. Steidlmayer, who want to see all the lands of the Buttes preserved as ranchers have kept them for more than 150 years. Both look to the day when they can keep title to their land, but sell their development rights without taking on, in perpetuity, the added costs of government-mandated programs like endangered species protection and erosion control.

“I think a lot of the landowners see the park as the big entity that has all the power,” Ms. Sands said, “and we’re up against a big power that wants to take and grab everything from us.”



Check Out My Other Blogs (click on blog name to go there) = / 1.3rd Eye Blog / 2. Favorites Blog/ 3. Vita Excolatur (Living Well ...) Blog/ 4. Humor Me Blog/ 5. News and Current Events Blog/ 6. Consider This ... Blog/ 7. Consumer Warnings Blog/ 8. New Orleans Pentimento Blog/ 9. We Constant Gardeners Blog/ 10. Chaillot Family Blog/

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Status Quo Bias

Talking Points

TimesSelect Helping People Help Themselves

Michael Sloan

Published: February 14, 2007

From “lather, rinse, repeat,” to how you invest for retirement, the way you do most things now is the way you’ll continue to do them. That all-too-human tendency to favor the familiar and resist change, called “status quo bias,” is a central finding of behavioral economics — a discipline that fuses psychology and economics. Behavioral economics has demonstrated that in money matters (as in life), people are motivated by impulses that are measurable and predictable — and often irrational. That won’t surprise anyone who ever threw good money after bad, succumbed to a fad or ate the whole thing. One of the founding fathers of behavioral economics, the late Amos Tversky of Stanford University, once quipped that the scientific exploration of human behavior illuminated what was already obvious to “advertisers and used car salesmen.”

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AuthorTeresa Tritch, an Editorial Board member, writes about politics, finance and taxes.

I. Paving the Road to Riches
II. Other Paths and Protections
III. Improving Public Policy
IV. The Politics of Behavioral Economics

Previous Talking Points Articles

And yet most economic models and the public policies they inspire still assume that human beings behave like Mr. Spock of “Star Trek.” According to the models, people are guided in their decision making by a consistently rational and highly reliable sense of their own best interest.

That notion is finally changing.

Behavioral economics first emerged some 30 years ago, most prominently with the research of Mr. Tversky and Daniel Kahneman of Princeton University. By the 1990s, the field was being popularized. In 1990 and again in 1997, for example, Money magazine used behavioral economics to create features and quizzes designed to explain why smart people make dumb money moves. In 2002, Mr. Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in economics for his contributions to behavioral economics. Increasingly, the field is attracting some of the brightest minds in economics, involving the nation’s major universities and think tanks, publications and conferences.

But it wasn’t until last year that behavioral economics first shaped public policy in a big way, via the pension reform law of 2006.

That breakthrough — and its implications — were largely hidden in the sausage-making process of passing the bill through Congress. But by applying behavioral economics to Americans’ well-known lack of savings for retirement, the new law serves as a primer on the discipline and how it may be used to shape various public policies.

I. Paving the Road to Riches

A key provision of the 2006 pension reform law allows an employer to automatically enroll employees in the company’s 401(k) retirement plan, rather than requiring them to sign up.

The idea for “auto-enrollment” came from research in behavioral economics showing that status quo bias is prominent among the factors that keep non-savers from participating fully in 401(k)s. The tendency to continue doing what one has always done — such as spending one’s paycheck rather than saving a portion of it — is often stronger than the rational arguments in favor of joining the 401(k). Procrastination only magnifies status quo bias.

Automatically enrolling all employees circumvents status quo bias — but not, it’s important to note, by usurping choice. Employees are free to opt out if they don’t want to participate. Once enrolled, however, status quo bias works for — not against — the goal of bigger nest eggs, because saving a part of each paycheck becomes the new norm, helping to ensure that workers stick with the savings program.

The 2006 pension law also contains a mechanism to help employees overcome “loss aversion” — a psychological phenomenon whereby people feel the pain of a loss more acutely than the joy of a gain. Loss aversion is one of the reasons that most employees are loath to ever increase the amount of money they contribute to their 401(k) once it is set: A bolstered payroll deduction may be perceived as a loss. So the new pension law provides for automatic escalation — employers who automatically enroll their employees are also allowed to regularly boost employees’ contribution levels, up to 6 percent of a worker’s pay.

Loss aversion is related to another common foible, dubbed the “endowment effect”: People “endow” their possessions, including their paychecks, with an inordinately high value, simply because they possess them. When it comes to savings behavior, the endowment effect predisposes people to value every dollar currently in their pocket far more than the opportunity to save some of those dollars for the future — a psychic recipe for coming up short in old age. By automatically escalating 401(k) contributions, say, when an employee gets a raise, loss aversion and the endowment effect are averted — and savings are increased.

Still another behavior addressed by the new pension law is “decision paralysis,” people’s tendency, when faced with too many choices, to decide not to decide. If choosing is unavoidable and the stakes are high — as is the case with 401(k) investing — many people will opt to play it safe by putting their money in low-yielding, low-risk accounts. That’s the best way for them to ease their troubled minds, but it probably won’t get them to a financially secure retirement.

So the pension law instructed the Department of Labor to issue guidance to employers on how to craft a standard investment option for employees who don’t want to choose among various funds. Offering automatic investment in a balanced, diversified fund ameliorates decision paralysis and, in the bargain, advances the public policy goal of making a financially-secure retirement attainable for workers.

II. Other Paths and Protections

Behavioral economics could enhance public policy in other areas as well. One example is labor relations, where ample research has underscored the importance of fairness in setting wages.

Another is the law. In situations involving monetary rewards, juries often have no way of arriving at a correct figure. They may be hindered by their abilities or by the novelty of a situation: How do you put a dollar amount on pain and suffering? A common response to such unknowns is what behavioral economists call “anchoring,” the inclination to seize on any given number as meaningful. Thus, the mere mention of a plaintiff’s potential award — say, $10 million — has been shown to influence juries’ ultimate decisions.

Consumer protection is an area where psychological phenomena have been largely overlooked, though that also may be changing. Behavioral economists have been invited to participate in a conference this spring at the Federal Trade Commission, which oversees consumer protection, on the implications of their research for government policy.

Behavioral economics has made strides in showing how consumers respond when faced with conditions that make it difficult to perceive the true price of a product or service. Those conditions, detailed in a recent paper by Jeffrey B. Liebman and Richard J. Zeckhauser, both of Harvard, include complexity (roaming rates on cell phones, for example), a disconnect between consumption and payment (as with water and electricity usage) or situations in which rules change frequently (as in a policy arena like taxes).

In such cases, the human mind naturally resorts to shortcuts, like averaging. Such use of elementary math, mental tricks and rules of thumb can be useful in coping with demands on one’s time and abilities. But it often leaves consumers with the sense of having made a more-or-less correct decision, when in reality it often leads to computational mistakes and other errors that work to their disadvantage.

Knowing this, might it be useful to require companies to show the full estimated cost of owning a product, rather than the cost of buying it? Take the Hewlett-Packard Deskjet 3747 Color Inkjet printer, for example, which retails for $29.99, The Harvard economist, David Laibson, recently calculated that the printer’s four-year cost is $2,400, when you include ink for about 20 black and white copies a day. Should that information be prominently disclosed?

III. Improving Public Policy

Behavioral economics could also be deployed to enhance public goals that we already are striving to meet. We tax cigarettes, for example, in part because we want to discourage consumption. High prices may deter young people from picking up the habit or give smokers an added incentive to stop. Many economists assume there is a limit to how high such taxes can go before they spawn a black market or impoverish low-income smokers who cannot quit, concerns which lead most tax authorities to limit tobacco taxes. But if there were no brakes on the enforceable level of cigarette taxes, it would be possible to compute a tax that would be adequate to snuff out most smoking.

Another antismoking tack explored by some behavioral economists picks up where “sin taxes” leave off.

Unlike standard economic models, which assume that smokers make a rational decision to smoke, behavioral economic models account for the irrational human tendency, known as “hyperbolic discounting,” to give too little weight to the future effects of current decisions. Hyperbolic discounting is akin to the biases that lead people not to save for retirement, but in the case of smoking it is intensified by an addictive short-term impulse (“I want a cigarette now”) that overwhelms most smokers’ desire to quit.

The distinction between the rational economic model and behavioral one is crucial, because if smoking is rational, there’s little justification for government intervention beyond preventing harm to others. Indeed, the need to protect nonsmokers has been the rationale for most anti-smoking rules.

But what about the harm to the people who would like to quit, but can’t? Clearly, most people know that they should quit (as they know they should save for retirement, or pursue any number of other long-term goals). Behavioral economics shows us that successful incentives must take into account biases that defeat rational commitments.

Working from that insight, behavioral economists at Harvard and Yale have recently proposed interventions designed to help smokers to self-regulate, in effect allowing them to choose in advance the legal restrictions on their cigarette purchases.

For example, the government could require special identification cards to buy cigarettes. The cards would be free of charge, so as to impose minimal inconvenience on people who want to smoke. But the need to apply, to carry the card and to present it when buying cigarettes imposes delays and other opportunities for would-be quitters to restrict their purchases. By choosing not to apply for a card or not to carry one, a smoker would be making a decision in the present that binds his or her options in the future. The aim is to tame the self-defeating tendency to discount the distant effects of today’s decisions and activities.

IV. The Politics of Behavioral Economics

Arguments against taxes, social safety nets and government regulation are generally premised on the notion that they distort the market by impeding the pursuit of rational self-interest, the presumed driver of economic activity.

In 2001, for example, President Bush’s rationale for massive tax cuts was to refund the budget surplus to the people, who, he said, would make better decisions on spending the money than the government would. The reasoning has a cocky appeal that meshes well with human beings’ intrinsic overconfidence, a trait that has been amply demonstrated in behavioral economics. But was Mr. Bush’s assertion true? Did it lead to the best policy? An alternative use of the surplus would have been to pay down federal debt, thereby reducing the government’s interest payments and freeing up money to pay the nation’s Social Security obligations to baby boom retirees. Did the spending of tax refunds do more good than strengthening Social Security would have?

Mr. Bush’s similar argument in favor of privatizing Social Security is that individuals, investing on their own, could amass more money for retirement than they would get from a government-run system. Again, this sounds appealing. But is it realistic? Is it wise?

By deflating arguments that are based on the primacy of rational self-interest, behavioral economics’ biggest impact may ultimately be on the terms of economic debate.

“The presumption that individual choices should be free from interference is usually based on the assumption that people do a good job of making choices, or at least that they do a far better job than third parties could do,” wrote Richard H. Thaler — another presumptive candidate for the Nobel Prize — and Cass R. Sunstein, both of the University of Chicago, in a recent essay. “As far as we can tell, there is little empirical support for this claim."

The question for policy makers is not whether people can be counted on to consistently make rational decisions that maximize their welfare — demonstrably, they cannot. The question is whether corporations or government or can do a better job.

And the challenge is to answer the question based on evidence, not unexamined beliefs.

At times, market solutions to market problems have clearly been effective, such as reducing acid rain by developing a system to trade pollution credits.

But if typical human biases undermine a policy goal, and those same biases present a profit opportunity — selling cigarettes, for example — it’s silly to pretend that the market will act as a corrective. “There’s no reason to think that markets always drive people to do what’s good for them,” Mr. Thaler was quoted saying in a University of Chicago Magazine feature on behavioral economics. “Markets also drive people to do what’s good for the people selling.”

Questions of if and when the government should decide are also loaded.

Most any government intervention seems objectionable if you assume that people usually make the best choices for themselves. That anti-government sentiment is intensified if you also believe that markets are impersonal, leading by some inexorable logic to optimal outcomes for society-at-large.

Behavioral economists reject those assumptions. But it doesn’t automatically follow that government solutions are inevitable or even desirable: Excessive regulation of economic activity would lead to a nanny state.

In their articles and in a forthcoming book, titled “Nudge,” Mr. Thaler and Mr. Sunstein suggest a middle ground. First, they point out the importance of acknowledging that in many situations, some person or entity must make choices that affect others.

Think back, for example, to the pension reform law. Before automatic enrollment, employers chose to require employees to enroll in a 401(k) plan. Because of the employer’s choice, an employee who did not enroll would contribute zero percent of salary to the plan. In other words, zero was the default contribution. Mr. Thaler and Mr. Sunstein point out that in situations where it seems that no one is making a controlling decision, it is usually because “the starting point appears so natural and obvious,” it is taken as a given. Automatic enrollment, however, is a different choice that establishes a different default position. Is steering the employee in the direction of participating objectionable? No, especially since the employee is free to opt out.

Which leads to their second point in the search for a middle way between hands-off government and the nanny state. If no coercion is involved, there is no justification for rejecting government interventions out of hand.

Policies that do involve coercion — taxation, for one — obviously require public support to be sustained. If the support dries up, the policy presumably will, too.

But it is a mistake to oppose tax-supported programs like Social Security or universal health care on the faulty assumption that everyone does better when individuals take their best shots in the marketplace.

Critics of behavioral economics are quick to point out that government officials are also human, subject to the same biases that trip up the rest of, and thus would be no better at making decisions than anyone else. That’s an oversimplification. Expertise, professionalism and experience work to mitigate biases, as do debate, discussion, deliberation and oversight. In a functioning democracy, we have a right to expect and demand those traits and processes in government, in which case, we could rely on government decisions, at times, more than our own.

This being a democracy, we could rely, but verify.

Lela Moore contributed research for this article.



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Sunday, March 04, 2007

Building Athletes

How to Grow a Super Athlete

Olaf Blecker

The future of tennis? Spartak's Little Group, ready to impress.

Published: March 4, 2007

This story could begin in many places — it's about beginnings, after all — but I'd like to start with the recent evening when my 4-year-old daughter, Zoe, appeared before me wielding a yellow baseball bat and an important announcement: batting tees were for babies. From now on, she would hit real pitches, like the big kids.

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Olaf Blecker

Wired for Greatness? Moscow's Spartak Tennis Club may have something to teach us about how to develop young talent.

Olaf Blecker

"Technique is Everything" Larisa Preobrazhenskaya won't let her students compete until they've had three years of training.

Olaf Blecker

Six-year-old Gunda Arzhba myelinates her backhand with a Spartak coach.

Olaf Blecker

The Greenhouse Effect A combination of cultural toughness and focused practice makes places like Spartak fertile ground for producing world-class athletes.

By way of biography, I should mention that Zoe, the youngest of four, is considered one of the finest all-around mini-athletes in the history of our house. She's widely celebrated for her ability to throw balls really far, to hop on one foot across the whole front porch, and to run faster than a superfast airplane can fly. So as I walked (and she raced) down to the basement and located an inflatable purple ball, I fully expected Zoe to take to hitting like she'd taken to everything else.

But Zoe, it turned out, pretty much stunk.

Toss after toss, she missed. Five tosses. Then 10. I tried throwing the ball softer, harder, lower, higher. I got a different bat, offered advice and abundant encouragement, tried covertly to pitch the ball so it hit the bat. Nothing worked. Zoe whiffed with virtuosity and enthusiasm. Against my nobler instincts, I found myself, like the purple ball, getting a bit deflated. I felt as if I were receiving a grimly polite report suggesting that Zoe, despite her athletic promise, had regrettably tested negative for hand-eye coordination.

A few days later, we did it again. This time Zoe started off missing, then hit a foul ball. Then two fair balls in a row. Then three. She was watching the ball now, timing it. As the saying goes, something had clicked. Zoe hit the last toss squarely, and the purple ball zipped past my ear and smacked the window with a resounding gong. We froze at the unexpected sound, enjoying the moment and the question echoing beneath.

What, exactly, just happened?

What is talent? It's a big question, and one way to approach it is to look at the places where talent seems to be located — in other words, to sketch a map. In this case, the map would show the birthplaces of the 50 top men and women in a handful of professional sports, each sport marked by its own color. (Tennis and golf handily rank performance; for team sports, salaries will do.) The resulting image — what could be called a talent map — emerges looking like abstract art: vast empty regions interspersed with well-defined bursts of intense color, sort of like a Matisse painting.

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Canada, for instance, is predictably cluttered with hockey players, but significant concentrations also pop up in Sweden, Russia and the Czech Republic. The United States accounts for many of the top players in women's golf, but South Korea has just as many. Baseball stars are generously sprinkled across the southern United States but the postage-stamp-size Dominican Republic isn't far behind. In women's tennis, we see a dispersal around Europe and the United States, then a dazzling, concentrated burst in Moscow.

The pattern keeps repeating: general scatterings accompanied by a number of dense, unexpected crowdings. The pattern is obviously not random, nor can it be fully explained by gene pools or climate or geopolitics or Nike's global marketing budget. Rather, the pattern looks like algae starting to grow on an aquarium wall, telltale clumps that show something is quietly alive, communicating, blooming. It's as though microscopic spores have floated around the atmosphere in the jet stream and taken root in a handful of fertile places.

A quick analysis of this talent map reveals some splashy numbers: for instance, the average woman in South Korea is more than six times as likely to be a professional golfer as an American woman. But the interesting question is, what underlying dynamic makes these people so spectacularly unaverage in the first place? What force is causing those from certain far-off places to become, competitively speaking, superior?

In early December, I traveled to the heart of one of those breeding grounds, the Spartak Tennis Club in Moscow. Russia is the birthplace of a group of athletes who have affected the World Tennis Association rankings in the same way that zebra mussels have affected the Great Lakes — which is to say, pretty much clogged them. The invasion happened swiftly: at the end of 2001, Russia had one woman (Elena Dementieva) in the W.T.A. Tour's top 30. By the start of 2007, Russian women accounted for fully half of the top 10 (Dementieva, Maria Sharapova, Svetlana Kuznetzova, Nadia Petrova and Dinara Safina) and 12 of the top 50. Not to mention 15-year-old Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who was the International Tennis Federation's No. 1-ranked junior and who was joined in the top 500 by five countrywomen also named Anastasia.

Spartak, usually preceded in the tennis press by the word "famous" or "legendary," had produced three of the top six Russians (Dementieva, Safina and Anastasia Myskina), along with Anna Kournikova, now retired. Tournament pairings regularly became all-Spartak affairs, most memorably the 2004 French Open final, Myskina over Dementieva, the continuation of a rivalry the two began at age 7. To put Spartak's success in talent-map terms: this club, which has one indoor court, has achieved eight year-end top-20 women's rankings over the last three years. During that same period, the entire United States has achieved seven.

"They're like the Russian Army," says Nick Bollettieri, the founder of the Nick Bollettieri Tennis Academy in Bradenton, Fla., and the former coach to Sharapova, Andre Agassi and other top-ranked players. "They just keep on coming."

Getting to Spartak, however, takes more than a talent map; it's not located on any real maps. Fortunately, help arrived in the form of Elena Rybina, a chain-smoking, speed-talking translator who worked part-time for the Russian Tennis Federation and who possessed a fast-alternating combination of film noir toughness and childlike giddiness that I took as the quintessence of modern Russia.

"I learned my English listening to music, like Elton John," she said. " 'Crocodile Rocks'! I love it!"

We rode the subway half an hour northeast to Sokolniki Park and started walking. And walking. Sokolniki is almost twice the size of Central Park, considerably less central and only vaguely parklike. It's basically a huge forest of birch and elm trees filled with a disconcertingly energetic population of stray dogs. We walked past an abandoned chess club, an abandoned amusement park, an abandoned factory and the smashed onion dome of what appeared to be an abandoned church.

"It is very beautiful in summer," Rybina assured me as we passed a pond frosted with green scum. "But Spartak, I must warn you, is not so nice."

"What do you mean?"

Rybina lighted a Davidoff cigarette and raised her eyebrow into a Gothic arch. "Spartak is not exactly like a palace."

We turned a corner, followed a road for a few hundred yards and saw a loose assortment of peaked buildings and shotgun shacks that resembled a dilapidated ski village. Windows were dim cataracts of warped plastic, paint was scabbed and peeling and the buildings were frescoed in a rich coat of grime. A glaze of ice coated the club's 15 outdoor clay courts, as it did for six months of the year. A beat-up 18-wheeler lent the scene a postnuclear, "Mad Max" vibe. The only bright color came from the rainbow sheen of diesel fuel in the puddles.

Rybina shrugged indifferently and lighted another Davidoff. We walked past the inexplicably manned guard post, past an A-frame that appeared to be a storehouse for scrap metal and toward a larger structure that resembled a greenhouse. We ducked through a low door and onto the court. The surface was worn down in frequently trodden spots, like cathedral steps. Two wooden sticks nudged the sagging net futilely toward regulation height. The fluorescent lights buzzed. "We are lucky," Rybina whispered. "The heat is working." When it doesn't, the kids play in their coats.1

The class, called the Little Group, had already arrived. They wore heavy coats and toted their tennis rackets in backpacks, sports duffels and plastic grocery bags. At first glance, they looked like a standard-issue assortment of 5- to 7-year-olds: there was Denis, the handsome blond in the blue turtleneck; Alexandra, the lanky towhead in the green T-shirt; Gunda, the smiley ponytailed girl in the silver shoes; and Vova, the revved-up boy with the Asiatic eyes who was the class's only 4-year-old. There were 12 students in all. They had been coming to Spartak three times a week since September; by now they'd been on the court perhaps 40 times. As the lesson began, a few of them made their final preparations, reaching into their bags for what appeared to be their good luck charms: a tidy gallery of stuffed dinosaurs, bunnies and pandas formed on the wall behind the base line.

The coach, 77-year-old Larisa Preobrazhenskaya (pronounced pray-oh-brah-ZHEN-skya), stood at the sideline, watching. She wore a red-and-white tracksuit and a knowing, amused expression. Preobrazhenskaya was Spartak's most renowned youth coach, but she wore her authority lightly, radiating a grandmotherly twinkle behind hooded eyes. She'd been quite a player in her day, the 1955 Soviet singles champion. She still looked athletic, sauntering around the court with a John Wayne limp caused by a sore hip. The parents huddled by the door, watchful and silent.

The students formed a circle on one side of the net and started to stretch. I watched, scoping for telltale signs of überkinder superiority, but saw nothing of the sort. The Little Group proceeded to hustle energetically through a 15-minute set of calisthenics worthy of Jack LaLanne: jumping jacks, hops, crab walking, bear walking, skipping, sidestepping, zigzagging through a line of orange cones. I was half expecting them to pull out medicine balls, when they actually did pull out medicine balls, passing them back and forth earnestly like so many extras in a Rocky movie.

"All the motions," Preobrazhenskaya would tell me. "It is important to do everything, every practice."

The Little Group paired off with rackets and began imitatsiya — rallying with an imaginary ball. They bounced lightly from foot to foot, they turned, they swung, the invisible balls flew. Preobrazhenskaya roamed the court like a garage mechanic tuning an oversize engine: realigning a piston here, tightening a flywheel there. Several times, she grasped their small arms and piloted their bodies through the stroke. Thus the lesson began, and with it the unspoken implication: the great, rusty Spartak machine was coming to life, carrying its cargo of mini-geniuses another step closer toward inevitable glory.

As I pictured the scale of the David and Goliath phenomenon this unlikely scene embodied, the question arose: how does Spartak do it?

Explanations were not in short supply. I'd heard plenty from American tennis coaches, a nicely bulleted list that included a Slavic gene pool that produces a seemingly inexhaustible supply of tall, fast, strong kids; the economic and cultural gateway that opened with the 1991 collapse of the Communist government; the former Russian president Boris Yeltsin's enthusiastic (if at times klutzy) love for the sport; and the potent catnip effect of Kournikova, the former top 10 player who, though she never won a singles tournament, provided an escape-hungry generation of girls (and, more important, their parents) with vivid proof that tennis success equaled glamour, fortune, fame.

The Russians, when I asked them, chimed in with explanations of their own, including the lifelong commitment of coaches like Preobrazhenskaya; the superior biomechanical techniques taught at the Moscow Institute of Physical Culture, where many of Russia's top coaches train; and (in a nostalgic burst of cold war trash talking) the intrinsic softness of the West.

Watching the Little Group play, I, too, felt a strong urge to bellow my share of theories: it must be the medicine balls! The discipline! The lack of Game Boys! I was particularly struck by the kids' obvious enjoyment of the lesson. One of the mothers told Preobrazhenskaya that her daughter, Gunda, had awakened early that day, unable to sleep. "Today is my day with Larisa Dmitrievna!" Gunda had said. "It is today!"

In sum, there are a lot of explanations, some better than others. For instance, is the Russian gene pool really that innately superior to that of Ukraine or Slovenia or Southern California? If Kournikova inspired so many Russians, then where were the German stars inspired by Steffi Graf? But ultimately the theories fall short because they don't explain the principles underpinning Spartak's success. Indeed, seeing the place up close made me wonder if there were any principles. Spartak radiates the glow of happenstance, the diamond in the trash heap. (This impression is apparently shared by the Russian Tennis Federation, which has been content to allow Spartak to remain with its single indoor court.)

So even here, at the core of one of the globe's brightest talent blooms, the question of that talent's source remains enigmatically tangled, perhaps as much of a mystery to those who nurture these athletes as it is to the rest of us. It's enough to make you wish for a set of X-ray glasses that could reveal how these invisible forces of culture, history, genes, practice, coaching and belief work together to form that elemental material we call talent — to wish that science could come up with a way to see talent as a substance as tangible as muscle and bone, and whose inner workings we could someday attempt to understand.

As it turns out, that's exactly what's happening.

I was peering inside an incubator at the Laboratory of Developmental Neurobiology at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md. The incubator, about the size of a small refrigerator, held shiny wire racks on which sat several rows of petri dishes containing clear pink liquid. Inside the liquid were threadlike clumps of mouse neurons, which were wired to platinum electrodes and covered with a white, pearlescent substance called myelin. Within that myelin, according to new research, lies the seed of talent.

"In neurology, myelin is being seen as an epiphany," Douglas Fields, the lab's director, had told me earlier. "This is a new dimension that may help us understand a great deal about how the brain works, especially about how we gain skills."

The myelin in question didn't look particularly epiphanic, which is understandable since it would normally be employed by mice for sniffing out food or navigating a maze. Neurologists theorize, however, that this humble-looking material is the common link between the Spartak kids, the Dominican baseball players and all the other blooms on the talent map — a link all the more interesting for the fact that few outside this branch of neurology currently know much about myelin. In fact, as Fields pointed out, if indirectly, the talent map wasn't technically the most accurate name for my hypothetical landscape. It should be called the myelin map.

"I would predict that South Korean women golfers have more myelin, on average, than players from other countries," Fields said. "They've got more in the right parts of the brain and for the right muscle groups, and that's what allows them to optimize their circuitry. The same would be true for any group like that."

"Tiger Woods?" I asked.

"Definitely Tiger Woods," he said. "That guy's got a lot of myelin."

Fields, 53, is a sinewy man with a broad smile and a jaunty gait. A former biological oceanographer who studied shark nervous systems, he now runs a six-person, seven-room lab outfitted with hissing canisters, buzzing electrical boxes and tight bundles of wires and hoses. The place has the feel of a tidy, efficient ship. In addition, Fields has the sea captain's habit of making dramatic moments sound matter-of-fact. The more exciting something is, the more mundane he makes it sound. As he was telling me about the six-day climb of Yosemite's 3,000-foot El Capitan he made two summers back, I asked what it felt like to sleep while hanging from a rope thousands of feet above the ground. "It's actually not that different," he said, his expression so unchanging that he might have been discussing a trip to the grocery store. "You adapt."

Fields reached into the incubator, extracted one of the pink petri dishes and slid it beneath a microscope. "Have a peek," he said quietly.

I leaned in and saw a tangled bunch of spaghetti-like threads, which Fields informed me were nerve fibers. The myelin was harder to see, a faintly undulating fringe on the edge of the neurons. I blinked, refocused, struggled to imagine how this stuff might help my golf game.

Fields proceeded to explain that myelin is a sausage-shaped layer of dense fat that wraps around the nerve fibers — and that its seeming dullness is, in fact, exactly the point. Myelin works the same way that rubber insulation works on a wire, keeping the signal strong by preventing electrical impulses from leaking out. This myelin sheath is, basically, electrical tape, which is one reason that myelin, along with its associated cells, was classified as glia (Greek for "glue"). Its very inertness is why the first brain researchers named their new science after the neuron instead of its insulation. They were correct to do so: neurons can indeed explain almost every class of mental phenomenon—memory, emotion, muscle control, sensory perception and so on. But there's one question neurons can't explain: why does it take so long to learn complex skills?

"Everything neurons do, they do pretty quickly; it happens with the flick of a switch," Fields said. "But flicking switches is not how we learn a lot of things. Getting good at piano or chess or baseball takes a lot of time, and that's what myelin is good at."

To the surprise of many neurologists, it turns out this electrical tape is quietly interacting with the neurons. Through a mechanism that Fields and his research team described in a 2006 paper in the journal Neuron, the little sausages of myelin get thicker when the nerve is repeatedly stimulated. The thicker the myelin gets, the better it insulates and the faster and more accurately the signals travel. As Fields puts it, "The signals have to travel at the right speed, arrive at the right time, and myelination is the brain's way of controlling that speed." 2

It adds up to a two-part dynamic that is elegant enough to please Darwin himself: myelin controls the impulse speed, and impulse speed is crucial. The better we can control it, the better we can control the timing of our thoughts and movements, whether we're running, reading, singing or, perhaps more to the point, hitting a wicked topspin backhand.

Back at Spartak, the Little Group lined up outside the service box, rackets at the ready. Preobrazhenskaya stood at the net, a shopping cart of balls at her hip. She waited for silence, then started: forehand, backhand, back to the end of the line. One by one, the kids took their swings — to my eye, pretty nice-looking swings. But not to hers. Preobrazhenskaya frequently stopped them, had them do it over. More follow-through. More turn. Watch. Feel.

Pravil'no, she said. Correct.

Molodets. Good job.

If Preobrazhenskaya's approach were boiled down to one word (and it frequently was), that word would be tekhnika — technique. This is enforced by iron decree: none of her students are permitted to play in a tournament for the first three years of study. It's a notion that I don't imagine would fly with American parents, but none of the Russian parents questioned it for a second. "Technique is everything," Preobrazhenskaya told me later, smacking a table with Khrushchev-like emphasis, causing me to jump and reconsider my twinkly-grandma impression of her. "If you begin playing without technique, it is big mistake. Big, big mistake!"

I thought of something Dr. Fields had said: "You have to understand that every skill exists as a circuit, and that circuit has to be formed and optimized." To put it in Spartak terms, myelin is a slave to tekhnika — and so, in turn, was the Little Group. Preobrazhenskaya didn't instruct them on tactics or positioning or offer any psychological tips; rather, every gesture and word was funneled to teaching the elemental task of hitting the ball clean and hard. Which they did, one by one. A few of the kids had located that magical-seeming burst of leverage that makes the ball explode off the strings with a distinctive thwock.

"What do good athletes do when they train?" George Bartzokis, a professor of neurology at U.C.L.A., had told me. "They send precise impulses along wires that give the signal to myelinate that wire. They end up, after all the training, with a super-duper wire — lots of bandwidth, high-speed T-1 line. That's what makes them different from the rest of us." 3

As the Little Group continued its lesson, I found myself picturing myelin. I'd seen a highly magnified image on one of Fields's computer screens, and it looked like a deep-sea photograph: bright colors against a field of black. The oligodendrocytes — oligos, in lab lingo, are the cells that form the myelin — resembled glowing green squids, their tentacles reaching toward a set of slender nerve fibers. Once they seize hold, each tentacle begins to curl and extend, as the oligo squeezes the cytoplasm out of itself until only a cellophane-like sheet of membrane remains. That membrane proceeds to wrap over the nerve fiber with machinelike precision, spiraling down to create the distinctive sausage shape, tightening itself over the fiber like a threaded nut.

"It's one of the most intricate and exquisite cell-cell interactions there is," Fields said. "And it's slow. Each one of these wraps can go around a nerve fiber 40 or 50 times, and that can take days or weeks. Imagine doing that to an entire neuron, then an entire circuit with thousands of nerves."

So each time Alexandra or Denis or Gunda swings the racket properly — or, for that matter, each time we practice a chip shot or a guitar chord or a chess opening — those tiny green tentacles sense it and reach toward the thousands of related nerve fibers. They grasp, they squish, they make another wrap, thickening the sheath. They build a little more insulation along the wire, which adds a bit more bandwidth and precision to the circuit, which translates into an infinitesimal bit more skill and speed. Myelin is both practice and mastery, cause and effect. As Bartzokis had said: "Myelin is our Achilles strength, and it's our Achilles' heel. It's what makes us human." 4

All this myelin talk, combined with jet lag, left me feeling slightly changed. I wandered Moscow as if I were seeing the world through myelin-colored glasses. Emerald-green squids and snowy white sausages were everywhere I looked. A TV highlight of a Ronaldinho goal? Pure myelin! That violinist playing Mozart in the subway? What incredible oligodendrocytes that guy must have! A poster for the 2008 Olympics? An international myelin cultivation contest! My repeated ability to get lost within a few blocks of my hotel? Myelin again! (Rather, my lack of it.)

It also left me thinking about the clusters on the talent map. Specifically, wondering whether these places quietly possess myelin-accelerating factors: i.e., forces and conditions that promote what Fields would call "circuit optimization." Might those factors help explain the success of these superior athletes?

The rise of the South Korean golfers, who won almost one-third of the events last year on the Ladies Professional Golf Association Tour, has usually been explained by citing two factors: the country's formidably driven parents, and the rock-star status of Se Ri Pak, who has won 23 tournaments and is one of the nation's biggest sports celebrities. Yet the logic of this formula has always been confounded by a puzzling fact: South Korea happens to be a nation where it is singularly difficult for a young person to play golf. There are only 200 golf courses in the entire country, compared with 17,000 in the United States.

Viewed through the prism of myelin, however, the situation makes more sense. The lack of public courses sends golf-hungry parents and kids to South Korea's abundant driving ranges, which are Elysian fields of myelination compared to the relative randomness of course play. Were South Korea to increase access to courses, it could be argued, the country might wind up producing fewer top golfers.

Then there's the Dominican Republic, which has historically produced more Major League Baseball players than any other country outside the United States. Conventional wisdom holds that this remarkable record arises from the fruitful collision of a baseball-mad culture and grinding poverty. The equation is undeniably true, but it's also true of several nearby countries that don't achieve a fraction of the Dominican Republic's success.

There is one way, however, in which the Dominican Republic is historically unique. It's the first place where Major League Baseball teams built training academies — two dozen of them, starting in the mid-1970s. While academies provide players with obvious advantages like good nutrition and housing, not to mention regular exposure to scouts, they also provide a daily structure of drills and practices that, like the South Korean driving ranges, would presumably be a ripe environment for building myelin. 5

The most impressive myelin collection I encountered during my Moscow trip belonged to a woman encased in a sheepskin coat, fur-trimmed boots and a fuzzy white hat. Elena Dementieva, 25, represented the acme of the Spartak product. She stood 5-foot-11, weighed 141 pounds and emanated a vibration of such unearthly physical perfection that crowds parted as she moved down the sidewalk. Seeing Dementieva walk into the Russian Army sports club, where she trains between tournaments, I flashed to an image of the Spartak kids and felt a brief parental pang of disbelief. Such a transformation seemed impossible.6

Sitting down on a set of courtside bleachers (level gaze, warm laugh, no hint of divahood), Dementieva told her story. Surprisingly, she had been rejected by several other clubs as too slow before landing at Spartak. She spoke fondly, if a little vaguely, of her days at the club: dodging stray dogs, washing dirty tennis balls in the sink, doing homework on the long subway ride. Her first instructor was the renowned Rausa Islanova (the mother of Dinara Safina and of the men's 2000 United States Open winner, Marat Safin), who was known for her strictness and her elimination system in which students competed for a constantly shrinking number of slots. Dementieva's group started with 25 students; within a year it was down to 7. Of those 7 kids, 4 became world-class players (Myskina, Kournikova and Safin were the other 3).

"Spartak was good for me, I think," Dementieva said, squinting as if she were peering into her hazy past. "I always had a feeling that I was going forward, getting better technique."

When Dementieva took the court to practice, she began with a set of those Jack LaLanne-style warm-ups — sidesteps, jumping jacks, high steps. She looked as if she were still a member of the Little Group, so much so that, watching from the bleachers, I was momentarily unsure whether it was her or some beginner. Dementieva did imitatsiya; she practiced each stroke in slow motion. Then, when her male sparring partner showed up, she proceeded to hit the ball so hard, accurately and consistently that it seemed she was playing a sport I'd never seen before. Again and again, her body rose to the ball in a twist of ballistic force, the power betrayed only by the snakelike rise of her thick blond braid. The ball hissed.

Trying to wrap my head around the metamorphic process through which a too-slow kid could become . . . her, well, it left me utterly at a loss, able only to fumble for such useful scientific terms as "magic" and "miracle."

Fortunately, there are more rational people to consult, and perhaps the most rational is K. Anders Ericsson, who has devoted much of his life to studying phenomena like Dementieva and Spartak. Ericsson, a native of Sweden and a professor of psychology at Florida State University, is co-editor of "The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance," published in 2006. If talented people can be thought of as a singular species, then Ericsson is its John J. Audubon, and the handbook is his painstakingly annotated field guide.

The handbook runs to 901 pages, so, in the interest of time, allow me to sum up. Every talent, according to Ericsson, is the result of a single process: deliberate practice, which he defines as "individuals engaging in a practice activity (typically designed by teachers) with full concentration on improving some aspect of their performance." In a moment of towering simplification, "The Handbook" distills its lesson to a formula known as the Power Law of Learning: T = a P-b . (Don't ask.) A slightly more useful translation: Deliberate practice means working on technique, seeking constant critical feedback and focusing ruthlessly on improving weaknesses.

"It feels like you're constantly stretching yourself into an uncomfortable area beyond what you can quite do," Ericsson told me. It's hard to sustain deliberate practice for long periods of time, which may help explain why players like Jimmy Connors succeeded with seemingly paltry amounts of practice while their competitors were hitting thousands of balls each day. As the tennis commentator Mary Carillo told me, "He barely practiced an hour a day, but it was the most intense hour of your life."

Ericsson also discusses the Ten-Year Rule, an intriguing finding dating to 1899, which shows that even the most talented individual requires a decade of committed practice before reaching world-class level. (Even a prodigy like the chess player Bobby Fischer put in nine hard years before achieving his grandmaster status at age 16.) While this rule is often used to backdate the ideal start of training (in tennis, girls peak physically at around 17, so they ought to start by 7; boys peak later, so 9 is O.K.), the Ten-Year Rule has more universal implications. Namely, it implies that all skills are built using the same fundamental mechanism, and that the mechanism makes physiological demands from which no one is exempt.

This is not to suggest that the only difference between an average Joe and Michael Jordan is a few thousand hours of deliberate practice. Almost all of the scientists I spoke with agreed that inheritance is a huge factor in potential, if perhaps not in quite the way we've commonly assumed. (Perhaps, as George Bartzokis suggests, Jordan's greatest natural gift was his powerful oligodendrocytes.)

All in all, Ericsson's theory sounds logical and appealing, but part of me rises up in rebellion. What about geniuses? What about young Mozart's famous ability to transcribe entire scores on a single hearing? What about Shakespeare or Leonardo or those 14-year-old Ph.D. candidates? What about savants, who walk up to the piano or a Rubik's cube and are magically brilliant?

T = a P-b would be the reply. In his 1999 book, "Genius Explained," Michael Howe of the University of Exeter speculates that Mozart studied some 3,500 hours of music with his instructor father by his sixth birthday, a number that places his musical memory into the realm of impressive but obtainable party tricks. Savants, it is pointed out, excel within narrow domains that feature clear, logical rules (classical piano, math, occasionally art — as opposed to, say, jazz clarinet). Furthermore, savants typically possess prior exposure to those domains, such as listening to music around the home. Savants' true expertise, the research suggests, is in their ability to practice obsessively, even when it doesn't look as if they're practicing. As Ericsson succinctly put it, "There's no cell type that geniuses have that the rest of us don't."

So let's return to the initial question: how does Spartak do it? If the new science is right and myelination is to talent as photosynthesis is to plant growth, then Spartak makes it abundantly clear that photosynthesis alone is never enough; you also need soil, water, air, sunlight, luck. The question becomes, which variables are helping Spartak's myelin grow to such riotous abundance? Four factors stand above the rest:

1. Driven Parents. The hunger and ambition of Russian parents is uniquely strong, particularly when one considers how hard life is in Russia right now and also that the patron saint of Russian tennis parents is the ex-Siberian oil-field worker Yuri Sharapov, who came to America with less than $1,000 and his 7-year-old daughter, Maria, who now earns an estimated $30 million a year in endorsements. On the other hand, while they are intense, Russian parents aren't all that different a group from the parents in Serbia, the Czech Republic or Mission Viejo, Calif.

2. Early Starts. The kids here start young and specialize early. They are tennis players, and not much else competes for their attention (only a handful owned video games, according to my informal poll), and they also benefit from a Russian culture that's built to select athletes and shield them from academic pressures. Incidentally, there were indeed elite athletic genes floating around at Spartak: Alexandra's parents were famous figure skaters, and another kid was Myskina's cousin. So good genes probably play a role, or (just as likely, to my mind) there's a beneficial effect to growing up in an environment of working athletes.

3. Powerful, Consistent Coaches. Most tennis coaches I saw were treated with a respect reserved for university professors. The tennis clubs I visited were patrolled by a squad of Brezhnev lookalikes who offered advice that seemed hewed from stone. Their institutional specialty is biomechanics, but the point is perhaps not so much in the details of that coaching, but rather in the passion, rigor and uniformity with which that coaching is delivered. This, incidentally, is the opposite of the entrepreneurial system in which many American tennis coaches operate, as they often compete with one another, relying on their ability to sell their services to sometimes anxious parents. American coaches have to be unique to survive; Russian coaches are mostly the same.

4. Cultural Toughness. As poets have pointed out, the intrinsic hardiness of the Russian woman is legendary. Historically, this might have something to do with the hardships of life under Communism and the loss of 11 million soldiers in World War II. Whatever the cause, the immediate effect is a tangible mental toughness and a work ethic second to none. After all, at Spartak, they don't speak of "playing" tennis. The verb they like to use is borot'sya — to struggle.

If I gave in to the uncontrollable Ericssonian urge to put Spartak's success into a formula, it would read something like:

Intense Parents + Young Kids + Rigorous Technique + Toughness = Talent

Alongside it, we could write another equation:

Deliberate Practice + Time = Myelin = Talent

But in the end, as I look around the court, it can't come down to a formula because formulas are rational, and whatever Spartak is, it isn't entirely rational. It's a bunch of kids in a dumpy club who are burning to be here, for whom every swing is meaningful, who wake up in the morning and say, "Today is my day with Larisa Dmitrievna!" It's deeply and purposefully irrational, because it's built on a love of sport and country that can't be explained but holds everything together anyway. Spartak is not science; what happens here is not analogous to what happens in a factory or a laboratory. It's closer to what happens in a garden, a forgotten, rundown garden that somehow produces marvelous tomatoes, summer after summer.7

Thwock . . . thwock . . . thwock . . . thwock.

The Little Group was smacking it now, the balls zipping over the net and ricocheting off the far wall. Preobrazhenskaya, the gardener, watched with a smile, occasionally correcting a backswing or a grip, nudging the kids on with a murmur of praise and instruction: "Clever boy." "Good girl." "No." "Correct." "Not there." "That's it."

On my last day at Spartak, I met one more player. Her name was Kseniya; she was 5, and she'd come for a tryout. Her parents, an upscale pair, ducked through the low door and asked Larisa Dmitrievna if she might have a moment. Kseniya had black pigtails held in place with pink ribbons. She wore new silver tennis shoes. She walked solemnly, one step behind her parents, carrying a tiny pink racket. Something in the precision of her walk, in her air of self-possession, reminded me of my daughter Zoe.

If I gave in to the uncontrollable Ericssonian urge to put Spartak's success into a formula, it would read something like:

Intense Parents + Young Kids + Rigorous Technique + Toughness = Talent

Alongside it, we could write another equation:

Deliberate Practice + Time = Myelin = Talent

But in the end, as I look around the court, it can't come down to a formula because formulas are rational, and whatever Spartak is, it isn't entirely rational. It's a bunch of kids in a dumpy club who are burning to be here, for whom every swing is meaningful, who wake up in the morning and say, "Today is my day with Larisa Dmitrievna!" It's deeply and purposefully irrational, because it's built on a love of sport and country that can't be explained but holds everything together anyway. Spartak is not science; what happens here is not analogous to what happens in a factory or a laboratory. It's closer to what happens in a garden, a forgotten, rundown garden that somehow produces marvelous tomatoes, summer after summer.7

Thwock . . . thwock . . . thwock . . . thwock.

The Little Group was smacking it now, the balls zipping over the net and ricocheting off the far wall. Preobrazhenskaya, the gardener, watched with a smile, occasionally correcting a backswing or a grip, nudging the kids on with a murmur of praise and instruction: "Clever boy." "Good girl." "No." "Correct." "Not there." "That's it."

On my last day at Spartak, I met one more player. Her name was Kseniya; she was 5, and she'd come for a tryout. Her parents, an upscale pair, ducked through the low door and asked Larisa Dmitrievna if she might have a moment. Kseniya had black pigtails held in place with pink ribbons. She wore new silver tennis shoes. She walked solemnly, one step behind her parents, carrying a tiny pink racket. Something in the precision of her walk, in her air of self-possession, reminded me of my daughter Zoe.

Preobrazhenskaya put her arm on Kseniya's shoulder and walked her to the corner of the court, out of the parents' earshot. The girl looked up into the coach's face. "She has good eyes," Preobrazhenskaya said later.

Preobrazhenskaya rotated Kseniya's arms in a wide circle, feeling for looseness in her muscles, which she regarded as a good sign. Preobrazhenskaya then showed Kseniya a new tennis ball, and told her what was about to happen. Kseniya listened closely, and nodded. Then the coach tossed the ball lightly, and Kseniya, her small body coming alive at once, ran to catch it.

1 In September, as part of an ongoing effort to revive American tennis, the United States Tennis Association plans to centralize its player development program at the Evert Tennis Academy in Boca Raton, Fla., a new complex that will feature 23 courts (14 lighted), dormitories, a state-of-theart video lounge and a staff of 30, including a mental-conditioning coach. Tuition with room and board will cost as much as $42,000 a year. By comparison, the Russian Tennis Federation's total youth-development budget is estimated to be between $300,000 and $400,000.

2 Timing is vital because neurons are binary: either they fire or they don't — no gray areas. Their firing depends solely on whether the incoming impulse is strong enough to exceed the neuron's threshold of activation. To explain the implications of this effect, Fields had me imagine a skill circuit in which two neurons need to combine their impulses to make a third, high-threshold neuron fire — for, say, a golf swing. In order to combine properly, those two incoming impulses must arrive at nearly exactly the same time — sort of like two people running at a heavy door to push it open. The time window turns out to be about four milliseconds, or roughly the time it takes a bee to flap its wings once. If the first two signals arrive more than four milliseconds apart, the door stays shut, the crucial third neuron doesn't fire and the golf ball soars into the rough (or, as I was reflexively picturing, Zoe swings and misses the purple ball). "Your brain has so many connections and possibilities that your genes can't code the neurons to time things so precisely," Fields said. "But you can build myelin to do it."

3 These studies shine a new light on the neuro-anatomist Marian C. Diamond's 1985 finding that the left, inferior parietal lobe of Albert Einstein's brain, though it had a typical number of neurons, had significantly more glial cells than her other samples, a study that neurologists at the time considered so meaningless as to be nearly comical but that now seems to make sense, bandwidth-wise.

4 The list of myelin-related pathologies is long and, Bartzokis believes, includes multiple sclerosis and Alzheimer's as well as a wider range of conditions, like schizophrenia, dyslexia, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and autism, all of which can be understood as disorders of impulse timing.

5 Venezuela is a more recent example of this phenomenon. In 1989, the Houston Astros opened the first of what are now nine major-league academies there, and a few years later, the number of Venezuelans in the big leagues started to rise. Since 1995, 125 Venezuelans have broken into Major League Baseball, 51 more than had appeared in all the years up to that point.

6 In children, myelin arrives in a series of waves, some of them determined by biological code, some of them dependent on activity. These waves last into young adulthood. Until this time, the brain is extraordinarily receptive to learning new skills. Though adults retain the ability to myelinate throughout life (thankfully, 5 percent of our oligos remain immature, ready to answer the call), anyone who has tried to learn a language or musical instrument late in life can testify that it costs a lot more time and sweat to build the requisite circuitry. The effortlessness is the first thing to go.

7 Replicating the Spartak system in the United States (or, for that matter, installing Dominican-style baseball academies or forcing young golfers to practice only at driving ranges) would likely not create a sudden wellspring of stars. The reasons that the United States is losing ground on the talent map have less to do with training mechanisms and more to do with bigger factors: a highly distractive youth culture, a focus on the glamour of winning rather than on the brickwork of building technique and a sporting environment that is gentler than those found in many of the world's harder corners.

"You can't keep breast-feeding them all the time," Robert Lansdorp, a tennis coach in Los Angeles, told me. "You've got to make them an independent thinker." Lansdorp, who is in his 60s, has coached Sharapova, along with the former No. 1-ranked players Pete Sampras, Tracy Austin and Lindsay Davenport, all three of whom grew up in the same area and played at the same run-of-the-mill tennis clubs near Los Angeles. "You don't need a fancy academy," he said. "You need fundamentals and discipline, and in this country nobody gives a damn about fundamentals and discipline." Lansdorp also mentioned that he'd visited Spartak last year to teach a clinic. "It was a pretty different place," he said. "But that Larisa, she sure knows her stuff."

Daniel Coyle wrote about the endurance cyclist Jure Robic in the February 2006 issue of Play.



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